Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
